How we believe change happens
Theory of Change
More people and institutions should be able to understand change, question assumptions about the future and make better decisions under uncertainty.
Canada already has foresight expertise across government, education, business, academia, civil society and communities. But that capability is unevenly distributed, often siloed and not yet embedded widely enough in everyday decision-making.
CCFL works toward a futures-literate society: one in which people, organizations and institutions can recognize how ideas about the future influence choices in the present, explore alternatives and act with greater responsibility.
Our field-building mandate is anchored in Canada, while our research, learning, training, applied foresight and partnerships are open to collaboration internationally.
Our core belief.
People and organizations are already using ideas about the future—often without realizing it.
Those expectations shape what they notice, fear, ignore, invest in and believe is possible.
If people and institutions become more aware of those assumptions, more capable of imagining alternatives and better equipped to connect foresight to action, they can make wiser decisions under uncertainty.
The goal is not to predict the future. It is to become more capable of working with it.
How change happens.
CCFL connects two kinds of change: people learn to think differently about the future, and institutions learn to make decisions differently because of it.
01
People expand how they think about futures
They surface assumptions, encounter different possibilities, reframe the present, expand their sense of agency and become more comfortable acting under uncertainty.
02
Institutions change how they make decisions
They scan emerging change, interpret signals and uncertainties, test strategies against multiple futures and begin embedding anticipatory thinking into strategy, governance, planning, innovation and public decision-making.
Four ways we contribute.
Community and collaboration run across all four. We are not trying to do all futures work ourselves; we are building capacity and connections so others can do more of it.
01
Advance futures thinking, Futures Literacy and anticipation
We expand access to futures concepts and practical ways of questioning assumptions, imagining alternatives and working with uncertainty.
02
Build shared foresight infrastructure
We develop networks, shared tools, resources, methods, convenings and platforms that help foresight work become easier to establish, connect and sustain.
03
Produce open research
We build evidence about how people understand and respond to the future, including through the Canadian Futures Barometer, and share useful findings and resources openly wherever possible.
04
Build and apply futures capability
We provide training, workshops and project-based research that help organizations and teams connect strategic foresight to real decisions, policies, strategies and challenges.
We build this with others.
CCFL works with schools, colleges and universities, businesses, governments, municipalities, civil-society organizations, researchers, practitioners and communities.
We create places where these groups can learn from one another, share research and methods, experiment with futures approaches and collaborate on real questions about what comes next.
Some of that work is specifically Canadian: building Canadian evidence, networks and public capability. Other research, training, applied foresight and collaboration can cross borders.
The Centre is Canadian in mandate, not closed by geography.
The pathway.
Systemic change does not come from one workshop. It happens when useful capabilities spread, get adopted and become part of how institutions operate.
Research + convening + learning + applied practice
produce tools, reports, workshops, labs, networks, methods and shared resources
which help people recognize assumptions, imagine alternatives and interpret emerging change
which helps organizations test decisions, strategies and policies against multiple futures
which can become embedded in education, strategy, governance, planning, innovation and public engagement.
What changes for different people.
The intended change is different depending on who is using the capability.
Individuals
Greater agency: people become better able to recognize assumptions and imagine alternatives.
Education
Future-ready learning: schools, colleges and universities gain practical ways to help students and educators work with uncertainty and long-term change.
Businesses & organizations
Strategic readiness: teams detect change earlier, test assumptions, explore alternatives and make stronger decisions under uncertainty.
Communities
Collective imagination: communities gain better language and spaces for discussing change without collapsing into inevitability or fear.
Governments & municipalities
Anticipatory governance: public institutions consider longer-term, systemic and intergenerational consequences in policy and services.
The futures field
Stronger infrastructure: more shared evidence, language, networks, methods, visibility and opportunities to collaborate.
What we must guard against.
Turning futures work into prediction, generic trend-watching or motivational imagination.
Becoming too abstract, academic or jargon-heavy.
Running workshops that do not change decisions or practice.
Allowing futures work to remain concentrated among consultants, executives, governments or professional futurists.
Overclaiming impact. CCFL can contribute to a more futures-literate society; it cannot create one alone.
How we will know.
We should be able to see change in practice, not only participation.
More people can name and question assumptions about the future.
Organizations use futures methods in strategy, innovation, risk, planning and governance.
Education partners integrate futures capability into learning.
Governments and municipalities use longer-term and future-oriented lenses in policy and public engagement.
Communities have more accessible tools and spaces to discuss alternative futures.
The futures field becomes more connected, visible, rigorous and inclusive.
Our long-term contribution is a society better able to navigate uncertainty, make better decisions in the present and keep more futures possible.